Synchronised Tarawera 2012 Prediction

Rather than leave it to Mike to make the first move in the prediction stakes, we agreed to simultaneously post our Tarawera 2012 predictions

Me: my first ultra. Experience of endurance events = 1 off road marathon, and a few solid solo outings over 50km in the last couple of months.
vs
Mike Hale:  how many marathons you run now Mike? And this your 3rd or 4th Tarawera? Needless to say, he’s experienced, and a talented runner to boot. Though slightly injured (underestimate him at your peril)

So here’s my prediction

My target time: sub 11hrs (just)
The plan: Start out at  ~6:20 running pace with 10:1 run walk ratio on top of the forced walks. Reassess pace on course for a negative split outcome.
Likelihood of running to plan: 10%
Likelihood of plan being grounded in reality: 5%

MEC Placing Prediction:
Obviously I’m going to reverse the West Coaster result and come in ahead of Mike, by, say, hmmm 8 minutes.

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3 thoughts on “Synchronised Tarawera 2012 Prediction

  1. It’s very interesting to see some alignment in these simultaneous predictions. I have to say that you have undersold your experience at “endurance events”. As well as having logged ~50% more running kms over the last 2 months there is your history: biking around North America, (Europe too?) Sundown to Sunrise rides (>250km I believe), 14 days across NZ on a fixed gear, 100km MTB on a woodchopper x 2….
    I also think that even my more generous predicted time ranges may prove to be insufficient. Such a long race can bring big time swings. On any one section in the second half it is quite possible to have a 1 hr swing between runners.

    • Oops, meant to write endurance “runs”. But then again, trust no-one when they tell how their training is going or what their expectations are. Motivations to deceive may include:
      * not wanting to jinx anything
      * not looking like a dork aften an epic fail
      * enjoyment of trash talk/intimidating bragging
      * lulling competition into a false sense of security
      and
      * being a bastard generally

      Will be interesting to see how this stacks up with bike endurance outings for toughness, certainly none of the training runs have come close to destructive forces of some of the less sensible rides I’ve done.

  2. You can do it Ronald. Just follow your plan – watch your own pace & don’t get sucked in.
    You are in your prime & supremely capable.
    Ron.

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