Rather than leave it to Mike to make the first move in the prediction stakes, we agreed to simultaneously post our Tarawera 2012 predictions
Me: my first ultra. Experience of endurance events = 1 off road marathon, and a few solid solo outings over 50km in the last couple of months.
Mike Hale: how many marathons you run now Mike? And this your 3rd or 4th Tarawera? Needless to say, he’s experienced, and a talented runner to boot. Though slightly injured (underestimate him at your peril)
So here’s my prediction
My target time: sub 11hrs (just)
The plan: Start out at ~6:20 running pace with 10:1 run walk ratio on top of the forced walks. Reassess pace on course for a negative split outcome.
Likelihood of running to plan: 10%
Likelihood of plan being grounded in reality: 5%
MEC Placing Prediction:
Obviously I’m going to reverse the West Coaster result and come in ahead of Mike, by, say, hmmm 8 minutes.