Tarawera 2013 Predictotcator

With a big fail on last year’s race predictions I figure the safest thing to do would be to simply go with Mike’s predictions – though I think my actual 2012 performance failed on his prediction as well 🙂   How do bookies do it? I’m making a punt and I’m the horse, and I still can’t get it right.

Given the amended 2013 course, at least any pressure is off to better last years time. This year will surely be slower. The new rattle in the tail of the course now means the last 25km are the hardest rather the easiest, if nothing else it’ll mean I’ll be taking my pace at the start rather more seriously.

So gone is my goal on a negative split. Goals I’m keeping are the “finish standing in one piece”, spend less than 45mins at aid stations, and take more photos.

With respect to time, who knows? I predict  whatever time I predict with certainly be wrong. Training has gone well, not the milage of last year, went for a more family friendly approach with some attempts to improve quality. The Kaweka Mountain Marathon and a few big outings should mean I’m ok in the hills, we’ll see what swapping a bit of volume for intensity and hill work does for me…. So I’m going for an optimistic 12:15hrs finish, kind of like my last year 11hr pick (so long as I eat something and break nothing).

Unfortunately I’ve not had a lot of contact with the other MEC entrants in the build-up, but have learnt two things about Mike. 1. Despite injury and other limitations he seems to be able figure out a specific training approach to compensate to some degree, and 2. He knows how to maximise what preparation he brings to a race. In other words, never write him off.  So unless his leg falls off on Saturday I’m picking a 6:30hr 60km for Mike.

Good luck MEC, look forward to seeing you down there…



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